Managing Change

Future Thoughts
The Future does not happen by accident, it is based on yesterday's actions. This doesn't mean that it's easy to predict what will happen tomorrow, but it also means that Tomorrow should not be a total surprise. Even if we can't tell where the raindrops will fall, it's worth knowing when the Hurricane will hit land. If we choose to avoid speculating about the Future, then we are deciding to stand still while it crashes over us. These articles lobby for both Future Thinking, and explore both the Future and how we might choose to think about it. Vapor Point - Introduction An introduction to the Vapor Point concept. An exploration of how technologies advance and a specific 'shift' that signals large dramatic societal change. Vapor Point: Chapter One From Ice Harvesting to Delivery to Manufacturing it in the Home Vapor Point: Chapter Two Rudimentary observations on Predicting the Future Nothing on the Horizon How do you know what you're missing? Stalking Innovation How to instill a culture of innovation into your organization Beyond this Horizon What exactly do Futurists do? Where do we go Tomorrow? Some basic rules for "Predicting" the Future. Where's my Flying Car? Why some predictions don't come true. It Did Happen! And... why some do. The Predictors Paradox To be accurate? Or believed? Making Pigs Fly The Mechanics of the Self Fulfilling Prophecy The Bell Tolls for Telecom When Wireless becomes the Norm That First Step We're going to build a stairway to the Stars! Return to Publications Directory	= New	Truth Pick #096 Take calculated risks. That is quite different from being rash. George S. Patton From when we open our eyes to the light of a new day, until we close them to join the shadows of the night, we live our days tied to the spin of the wheel. Nothing certain, nothing known, everything balanced between 'maybe' and 'perhaps'. It boils down to the same thing time and time again. We make choices. No matter the situation, we make choices. None of them certain, each one a risk. Not even a chance to avoid it all, by shutting eyes and standing still in a self made dark, hoping the world will pass us by... One choice is to rail against the world. Lashing without thought against the unfairness of it all. Moving forward without thinking, crashing upon the indifference of cold hard odds. Each ill-considered attempt will beat us down. Reality is impervious to determination without reason, and luck too nebulous to sustain reasonable hope of success. Another choice (there are others), is to sift through the risks and steer towards the least adverse. Calculating the odds requires intelligence and effort. The intelligence we have in abundance... it's the effort we have to make. (c) 2004 Peter de Jager Pdejager@technobility.com For more Truth Picks visit:- www.truthpicks.com