It did Happen!

Peter de Jager is a provocative Speaker, Writer and Consultant. His primary focus in on how we manage change, technology and the future.

In addition to speaking at conferences worldwide, he also writes monthly columns for CIO Magazine and Computerworld Canada.

His goal is always to question what we think is so, and in so doing perhaps open up new opportunities.

If you'd like permission to reprint any of Peter's articles, please contact him directly.

You can contact him at
pdejager@technobility.com

When we attempt to make predictions - we can put our failures into two baskets. In the first one we place all those predictions that state “This will happen” but then it didn’t. Into the second basket we place all those statements that stated “This won’t happen!” and then it did. Here are some classic examples:

"You could put in this room... all the radiotelephone apparatus that the country will ever need",

            W. W. Dean, President of Dean Telephone Company in 1907.

"I think there is a world market for about five computers"

            Thomas Watson 1943, Chairman of the board of International Business Machines (now IBM).

"640k ought to be enough for anybody"

            Attributed to Bill Gates in 1981.

These are a perfect example or symptom if you prefer, of the fundamental flaw in the way we think about the future. Despite our painful awareness of the rapid pace of change, when we look to the future we imagine it's going to be pretty much identical to the way it is now.

What is peculiar about the speakers above is they should know better. The irony is they were directly involved in creating a reality decidedly different from that of their parents, and yet they failed to see how their children’s lives could possibly be significantly different from their own!

This failure to perceive the future clearly, doesn’t arise out of arrogance. It’s not that they believed they were the pinnacle of technological prowess; it’s that they believed the constraints they operated under in their day, would remain in place throughout the future.

Moore’s Law wasn’t defined in their day, but Moore’s Law is nothing but a formal statement of something we’ve known for a long time. The primary difference between the past and the future is that in the future we become more ‘capable’ than we were in the past.

When Thomas Watson stated there would only be a market for about five computers he was making several inter-twingled assumptions; He was assuming that cost, size, computing power, reliability, complexity of use and operating costs would remain the same. These assumptions combined to create the belief that the public could not justify and therefore would have no need of a product suffering from these constraints. BUT… as we have seen time and time again… remove the constraints and markets arise as if by magic. Both Dean and Gates made exactly the same assumptions.

Costs always decrease; size changes in the direction we want it to go; speed is a goal we strive for and achieve within the limits of diminishing returns;  quality always goes up; ease of use increases and operating costs diminish… these mini-statements are true for ALL emerging technologies. Any prediction that ignores these ‘Laws of Technological Maturation’ will be proven wrong with the passage of time.

So what? If the above is true then we should be able to make some predictions about some emerging technologies. If we can’t, then all of this is just navel gazing. Here are two ‘predictions’ that take the above ideas and apply them.

First an easy one. Within 3-4 years wireless computing will be the norm. This is a no-brainer. Wi-Fi components are dropping to the price level where they are becoming the standard on all Laptops and PCs. Once this happens the operating systems will integrate them seamlessly into routine activities.

Too easy? Here’s one that pushes the envelope a bit. The Star Trek™ replicator will become a household device within 5-10 years. You’ll be able to buy a fully functional replicator for about $1,000-$2,000, possibly less.

Yes, I mean the replicator that allows you to build three-dimensional solid, usable objects. The technology is all in place… but typically costs about $70,000 US, the unit is a bit big, they’re a bit complicated to use, the materials are both expensive and volatile, and yes… maintenance is a bit of a chore - but this will change.

What would people use them for? It doesn’t matter… we don’t have to think of that in advance. The creative urges found in model building, do-it-yourself, arts & crafts and other hobbies will take care of the usage… all we have to do is to get the price and size down.

p.s. Check it out… http://www.solidimension.com/

© 2002, Peter de Jager. Reprinted from - Voyageur Science Fiction Magazine