Six Billion Nation States
Peter de Jager is a provocative Speaker, Writer and Consultant. His primary focus in on how we manage change, technology and the future.
In addition to speaking at conferences worldwide, he also writes monthly columns for CIO Magazine and Computerworld Canada.
His goal is always to question what we think is so, and in so doing perhaps open up new opportunities.
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When Archimedes said, "Give me a lever long enough, and a fulcrum on which to place it, and I shall move the world". I'm sure he knew he was right in theory only; that his vision of "world moving" was forever beyond the physical reach of individuals. Yet he was perfectly correct in another sense. Individuals, by applying the right technology in the right way, can move the world.
In many ways this is an observation of the obvious, or at least it should be. The category of human achievement we label as "technology", is nothing more than a collection of tools leveraging every aspect of human ability: Cars, trains, planes and ships, leverage our ability to move; Microscopes and telescopes leverage our sight; Hydraulic pumps leverage physical effort; Computers leverage every aspect of the mind, from reasoning to memory ... The list goes on, yet people are continually and genuinely surprised when individuals achieve what was once achievable only by corporations, industries and Nation States.
Technological progress continually increases personal ability. It makes us more capable than those who went before us. Even more powerful than the companies, infrastructures and governments they erected to increase their capability.
A transportation example: I've visited more than three dozen countries, crossed the Atlantic approximately 100 times, and traveled a great global circle twice. A century ago, I would have been the envy of Presidents and Kings. Today this achievement is practically without merit. I barely qualify as a frequent flyer.
Immersed in capability, we lose sight of what technology has made possible. Constant acquaintance with the amazing, immunizes us against awe. Familiarity doesn't breed contempt; because contempt requires conscious recognition. Familiarity breeds apathy, even ignorance of the wondrous. Once upon a time, only governments and big business could send a message around the world. Today the most disadvantaged of us, the homeless, own cell phones. Ho hum.
Because of this dramatic increase of leveraged ability, individuals can now compete with corporations, even industries. The almost exhausted example of Napster... an application developed by two students in a dorm room on a personal computer, has placed the multi-billion dollar music industry at the edge of a precipice in less than a decade.
Even the loosely organized Fourth Estate is challenged by an individual's ability to communicate on a global scale. Matt Drudge and his Drudge Report was as much a legitimate news source during the Clinton scandal, as the New York Times or the Washington Post. Personal Web Blogging by individuals is on the rise and is considered a reasonable source of news and opinion, by a generation disenchanted with traditional media channels.
This ability to leverage is not restricted to the domains of commerce. The world's largest military machine is at war with an individual and his relatively small network of like minded ' associates'. Paul Rogers, Professor of Peace Studies at Bradford University, and author of "Losing Control - Global Security in the 21st Century" (Pluto Press), acknowledges this shift in power when he recognizes: "the capability for relatively weak groups, whether states or sub-state actors (italics mine), to be able to exercise political violence against advanced urban-industrial states."
There is a growing awareness that through their increased ability to wage war, individuals can demand equality with the Nation State. Given the current world stage, it is difficult to argue they haven't already succeeded.
The great fear of society is that these individuals will gain control of weapons known as WMD. This acquisition would immediately elevate them to the status of world powers. The military experts have even coined a perfectly appropriate term "Asymmetric Warfare"... while it was meant to describe those situations where smaller forces apply their strength against the weakest defenses of stronger forces, it aptly describes any situation where governments must devote their full attention to the attacks from what were once considered gnats.
Nor is the ability to wage war totally dependent on mere acquisition of ready made WMD. We are close to acquiring the ability to create WMD in the back room. Specifically the weapons of biological, and chemical warfare. Germ warfare has always been with us, it's nothing new. Poisoning a well, contaminating a food supply or distributing infected blankets are all low tech, historical versions of modern biological warfare, accessible to anyone with malicious intent, but technology has once again, raised the ante.
In 2002, a team of researchers, at the University of New York, led by Dr. Eckard Wimmer assembled a viable Polio virus from tailor-made sequences ordered from a supply house. Their 'blueprint' came from the Internet. According to one of the researchers, Jeronimo Cello, "It was very easy to do." While more dangerous viruses are more complex, and therefore more difficult to assemble, the researchers admit that constructing such viruses is a future possibility.
As stated in the beginning, none of this should surprise us; these developments merely echo the trend of democratizing political power. Kingdoms once concentrated the power to shape and change the world in a single individual, now all individuals can move the world.
Archimedes' lever, much to his eternal surprise, is now a common reality.
© 2005, Peter de Jager –
Peter is passionate about change, how it affects both individuals and
organizations and allows them to grow and prosper. To contact him, and
host internal seminars on Change Management visit www.technobility.com
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