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Peter de Jager is a provocative Speaker,
Writer and Consultant. His primary focus in on how we manage change,
technology and the future.
In addition to speaking at conferences
worldwide, he also writes monthly columns for CIO Magazine and
Computerworld Canada and the ABA Bankers Journal.
His goal is always to question what we
think is so, and in so doing perhaps open up new opportunities.
If you'd like permission to reprint any
of Peter's articles, please contact him directly.
You can contact him at
pdejager@technobility.com
Or sign the Guest
Book and he'll get back to you.
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As technology advances it increases the capability
of individuals to create and deliver their own services. The cumulative
effects of this shift in delivery capability, can rival those of
governments and global conglomerates. A case in point is a grassroots
revolution taking place around the world. Individuals, with the aid of the
IEEE 802.11b standard, known as Wi-Fi (Wireless Fidelity) to the Techno-cognescenti,
are creating their own telecommunications infrastructure.
From
Melbourne
to
Prague
, from
Vancouver
to
Hong Kong
, communities with very little cash outlay are creating viable networks
with nothing more than word of mouth and devices which become cheaper by
the day. To follow the trend you could start at
http://www.canada-wireless.net/,
or visit one of the leaders in this area, Adam Shand at http://www.personaltelco.net/.
At the moment, the notion of any infrastructure project rising up without
detailed planning and large financial resources, flies in the face of
established tradition. Infrastructure projects are the domain of
governments and other gargantuan organizations with deep pockets and lofty
goals. That was true when the building materials were concrete or railway
lines... data, as we know, is different.
Predicting the future is always a risky business, but here’s what we
know for a fact; Nobody has repealed
Moore
’s Law. All technology, including Wi-Fi devices, is going to be cheaper
tomorrow. This statement will still be true, Regardless of when you
eventually get around to reading this article, next week or next year.
Therefore, sooner or later, Wi-Fi becomes so cheap, that buying a computer
without it, will be like trying to buy a computer without a CD player
today. When this happens, every community automatically becomes a wireless
community.
When does this happen? With prices dropping, and competition rising as
fast as they are, computer companies are looking for ways to differentiate
themselves. Adding Wi-Fi to all computer models within the next year or
two seems like a natural way to step ahead of the pack. (For a few weeks,
until everyone follows suit.)
When this happens, keeping a mobile laptop or PDA, continually hooked to
the internet at home, in the living room or the kitchen, makes some sense.
This means that making a Wi-Fi voice call, especially a local call, is now
as convenient as picking up the phone. Perhaps more so, if you add in
address books, or voice recognition. Features I don’t have on my
existing home phone.
Other advantages? Remember video phones? With digital cameras now included
as standard in some computers, this old idea might see a comeback.
And of course... When we find we’re not using our regular phone for even
long distance calls, because everyone we call has a mobile computer
continually connected, how long before we remove the unnecessary expense
from our household budget?
Will every household disconnect their phones within the next 5 years?
Doubtful. Will 50% of households decide their household PDA serves just as
well? Highly likely, especially since if we must contact someone still on
the CuNet (copper network) we will use a service (eg. http://www.pc-telephone.com/pc-to-phone.htm)
routing our call to that sole remaining archaic device.
Naturally, as with any new technology, there are hurdles to overcome.
Security for one, bandwidth and speed are others, but like all
technological constraints, these tend given time, to succumb to a
concentrated onslaught.
In some ways, this isn’t even a prediction. Like noticing the barn door
is open, after the horse has left, it’s a foregone conclusion. Wireless
communities based upon cheap 802.11b technology are already a reality.
Only two things need to happen before traditional land based phones are
obsolete.
First a high level of redundant coverage in all communities, and an
equally high level of awareness of what this means to personal
communications.
The inevitable consequences of
Moore
’s law take care of the first obstacle. The continuing growth of the
Internet takes care of the second. Naturally there are those who’ll
claim the technology isn’t ready yet, but they forget, the people have
already demonstrated they are. The bell is tolling.
© 2005,
Peter de Jager – Peter is passionate about change, how it affects both
individuals and organizations and allows them to grow and prosper. To contact him, and
host internal seminars on Change Management visit www.technobility.com
For
reprint permissions click here.
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